Over the past week, the worst phase of the macroeconomic environment appears to have passed. China has introduced supportive policies for the real estate sector, the Chinese and U.S. heads of state are expected to continue mutual visits, signaling continued communication, and falling oil prices have eased inflationary pressures, providing breathing room for interest rate hikes and U.S. Treasuries. The market is refocusing on AI fundamentals, and this time, what sustains market sentiment is no longer conceptual narrative, but tangible revenue data.

I. Model Revenue Acceleration Materializes, Demand Resilience Persists

The most direct signal comes from OpenAI. Its September annualized revenue (ARR) approached US$70 billion, a substantial increase from US$40 billion in July. In just two months, revenue nearly doubled. This not only reflects the sustainability of AI demand but also reinforces, to a certain extent, the certainty of AI monetization. Capital markets responded swiftly, with the Nasdaq and other indices reaching historic highs. From the data curves, revenue growth at OpenAI and Anthropic has shown an accelerating trajectory in 2026, while xAI and Mistral AI remain in catch-up mode, with revenue divergence among leading model companies widening.

From a medium-term perspective, demand remains resilient. The core logic lies in the fact that "intelligence" has always been a scarce commodity in any era, particularly applications capable of achieving zero-to-one breakthroughs. Several directions warrant attention: AI for coding, which directly enhances software development efficiency with the most intuitive productivity gains; AI for science, which recently achieved a breakthrough on a millennium mathematics problem, demonstrating AI's potential in fundamental research; AI for pharmaceutical, which accelerates drug discovery and shortens R&D cycles; and AI for physical world, where AMD's acquisition of WorldLab, founded by Fei-Fei Li, to develop world models signifies AI's extension from the digital realm into the physical world. The commercialization of these application scenarios constitutes the fundamental support for sustained AI revenue growth.

Of course, the market's core focus remains on model revenue growth curves, where expectation gaps may introduce volatility. For instance, Anthropic projected ARR of US$70 billion at the end of June, but the final figure came in at US$65 billion, approximately 7% below expectations. Such single-quarter deviations are not uncommon in high-growth industries, but they serve as a reminder that the pace of AI monetization is not linear, and market sentiment may fluctuate sharply due to short-term data. Nevertheless, this does not alter the broader direction—the trend of AI transitioning from technological breakthrough to commercial monetization has been established.

II. Model Landscape Remains Unsettled, Hardware Segment Offers Deeper Moats

What warrants caution is the intensifying competitive landscape in the AI model layer. Over the past year, leadership has changed frequently: from OpenAI to Google Gemini 3, then to Anthropic, and now Chinese players are rapidly catching up.

Kimi and DeepSeek are reportedly nearing completion of US$5 billion and US$12 billion financings, respectively, with financial strength not to be underestimated. Meanwhile, technologies developed by companies such as RadixARK are lowering the barriers to new model development, meaning more participants will enter the fray, and competition at the model layer will intensify. The long-term endgame remains uncertain, and the industry is likely to see divergence, with the risk of betting on a single model company rising.

However, regardless of who ultimately prevails, AI hardware will remain the underlying support. Models can be replaced, algorithms can iterate, but compute demand remains relatively certain in the medium term. Moreover, the hardware segment possesses deeper moats—energy, chip manufacturing and equipment, CPU, interconnect, and storage—each characterized by high technical barriers and capital thresholds that new entrants cannot easily overcome in the short term. Segments attracting relatively high market attention broadly include: energy, chip manufacturing and equipment, CPU, interconnect, and storage. Energy ranks first because the electricity demand of AI data centers is becoming a key bottleneck constraining compute expansion; chip manufacturing and equipment follow closely, as the scarcity of advanced process capacity persists.

For investors, the certainty of AI monetization is increasing, but the competitive landscape at the model layer remains far from settled. The moat characteristics of the hardware segment warrant continued observation, and this logic may prove more robust than chasing short-term revenue data from model companies.

DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this document has been prepared based on publicly available information. des Voeux Partners Limited ("DVP") in preparing this document, and des Voeux Family Office Limited ("DVFO") in reproducing this document, have taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate and objective. However, neither DVP nor DVFO makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document (including any valuation mentioned herein), nor has any independent verification of such information been conducted. DVP makes no representation or warranty as to the adequacy, completeness, or suitability of this document for any particular purpose.This document merely provides a macroeconomic overview of recent economic and market developments and is intended solely for marketing and reference purposes. This document is not an investment research report, nor should it be regarded as investment research. The preparation of this document has not complied with legal requirements intended to promote the independence of investment research, nor is it subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Unless otherwise specified, the source of information contained in this document is DVP. The opinions expressed herein represent the views of the author as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Any forecasts, estimates, or targets mentioned in this document are for reference only and are not guaranteed to be achieved. DVP and the author assume no liability for any failure to achieve such forecasts, estimates, or targets. In the event of any discrepancy or inconsistency between the Chinese and English versions of this document, the English version shall prevail.No person should rely solely on the contents of this document to make any investment or other decisions. All relevant decisions should be based on your independent judgment and after consulting appropriate professional advisers.This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or other investment products by DVP or its affiliates, nor does it constitute any investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. The contents of this document shall not be regarded as investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation provided to any individual.Investing in any products mentioned in this document involves varying degrees of risk, including credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, legal risk, cross-jurisdictional risk, foreign exchange risk, and other risks associated with electronic trading and leveraged product trading. Investment inherently carries risk, and you may not recover your full principal amount invested. Prices of investment products may fluctuate significantly, going up or down, and may even become valueless. Buying and selling investment products carries the risk of incurring losses rather than making profits.Nothing in this document constitutes personalized accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial, or other professional advice tailored to the personal circumstances of the reader. Before investing in any product, you should consult your own financial, legal, tax, or other professional advisers to fully understand the relevant risks and assess whether you are suited to bear such risks.All descriptions of any investment products herein are subject to the terms and conditions of the respective investment product and, where applicable, the prospectus or other relevant offering documents accompanying such investment product.To the maximum extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations, DVP, DVFO, and their affiliates shall not be liable for any loss or damage of any kind arising from any action taken or not taken by any person in reliance upon any information, opinion, forecast, or valuation contained in this document, regardless of how such loss or damage arises.This document and its contents are intended solely for professional investors as defined in the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Cap. 571D) of Hong Kong. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC).