AI Accelerates the Development of Brain-Computer Interfaces

A Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) is a technology that uses thoughts to control external devices. It aims to help individuals with paralysis, those undergoing motor rehabilitation, and others regain their freedom by allowing them to operate computers or robotic arms simply through intention. Recently, with the support of AI models capable of rapidly decoding brain signals, low-latency and high-speed control has been achieved. This has propelled BCIs from being "research toys" in medical laboratories to a serious hard-tech industry that is currently establishing a closed commercial loop.

For instance, Elon Musk's Neuralink, representing the invasive approach (which requires surgery to implant micro-electrodes directly into the cerebral cortex), has, according to Neuralink's public information and media reports, expanded its global trial scale to over 20 volunteers. Their actual cumulative implant usage time has exceeded 50,000 hours. Furthermore, the rate at which patients can control a cursor through "thought" has reached 11.32 bits per second (BPS), surpassing the efficiency of many able-bodied individuals using a mouse or touchpad directly. It has also, for the first time, introduced a brain-signal large model, granting the cursor a "Teleporting" function. This allows the cursor to jump directly to the target the patient is thinking of, rather than having to glide across the screen as in the past.

A Potential Rigid-Demand Market Exceeding One Trillion US Dollars

• High Paraplegia and Spinal Cord Injury: Globally, approximately 20 to 30 million people suffer from paralysis due to trauma or disease. The BCI is their only hope to regain limb control or operate digital devices.

• Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) and Locked-in Syndrome: There are hundreds of thousands of such patients globally who are conscious but completely paralyzed. For them, a BCI is their "lifeline" to communicate with the outside world.

• Blindness and Deafness (Sensory Reconstruction): There are nearly 40 million blind individuals and hundreds of millions with severe hearing impairment globally. Neuralink's Blindsight and similar projects aim to restore vision for the blind by directly stimulating the visual cortex of the brain, bringing tremendous underlying demand.

If the costs of surgery and subsequent maintenance are factored in (estimated by some industry sources at USD 100,000 per person), this could potentially become a one-trillion-US-dollar market in the future.

Deconstructing the "Investment Quadrants" of Three Technological Routes

As capital allocators, the current BCI market can be simply divided into three major schools:

From a technological perspective, Neuralink's invasive approach involves directly implanting a chip into the cerebral cortex, thereby providing the strongest reception of brain signals and subsequent precise decoding. Although this route faces extremely high clinical and ethical uncertainties in the short term, once it crosses regulatory thresholds and achieves automated surgery, it will possess a highly formidable economic moat and unit economics. It is suitable for long-term capital with a high risk tolerance.

How Far Are We from the "iPhone Moment"?

We believe that Neuralink's "iPhone moment" for highly paralyzed patients will not arrive until at least the end of 2027.

First, based on Neuralink's current clinical advancement speed, it will likely take until at least 2027 to obtain FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) approval for commercial launch.

Second, the large-scale rollout of Neuralink's craniotomy requires the complete automation of surgical robots, and the research and adaptation in this area will also take time.

Finally, regarding costs, it remains to be seen if it can truly be reduced to USD 5,000 as Elon Musk predicted.

Neuralink anticipates establishing large-scale partner clinics globally by 2031, achieving chip implantation via automated robots within minutes, much like LASIK vision correction surgery. There is significant uncertainty surrounding these projections.

However, we believe in this future vision. From a market perspective, the severely ill patient population alone is sufficient to support a massive market. Furthermore, technologies that can later target the consumer market (such as interventional and semi-invasive approaches) will represent another trillion-dollar market. At the technological level, AI breakthroughs have already provided greater certainty regarding the success rate and safety of the "thought control" that BCIs aim to achieve.

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